What kind of future are you creating your product for?

Possible, imaginary, or plausible futures all define different sets of hypotheses. Although they describe different assumptions, they are somehow already part of strategy planning, product development, or the innovation process. The open question is: When do you apply which type, and how can these types help your organization?

The four future types, Possible Futures, describe future realities we can imagine today. They inspire us to work toward their existence, like Star Trek's Warp Drive or utopian societal structures. These futures can mobilize the present to transform the impossible into reality. The challenge lies in not knowing how to get there or when it might become reality. Each vision is universally possible and atemporal, as Arthur C. Clarke stated: “Anything that is theoretically possible will be achieved in practice, no matter what the technical difficulties are if desired greatly enough.” The question remains: when?

Plausible Futures, described by arguments and hypotheses, are those that logically make sense. They describe logical, coherent, and understandable realities that could happen. Plausible Futures are part of the Possible Futures, but not every Possible state is Plausible. This future type searches for logical, coherent patterns in the space of possibility, with the key being to ratify the arguments and hypotheses over time.

Probable Futures are those that are highly likely to happen, connecting with the Plausible and Preferable. Rather than being a “future space” like the others, they describe a journey of reaching the future (aligned with purpose). We create higher levels of probability through constant validation, adding new variables, updating the speed of change, viral factors, and the maturity of the shifts.

Possible, imaginary, or plausible futures all define different sets of hypotheses. Although they describe different assumptions, they are somehow already part of strategy planning, product development, or the innovation process. The open question is: When do you apply which type, and how can these types help your organization?

The four future types, Possible Futures, describe future realities we can imagine today. They inspire us to work toward their existence, like Star Trek's Warp Drive or utopian societal structures. These futures can mobilize the present to transform the impossible into reality. The challenge lies in not knowing how to get there or when it might become reality. Each vision is universally possible and atemporal, as Arthur C. Clarke stated: “Anything that is theoretically possible will be achieved in practice, no matter what the technical difficulties are if desired greatly enough.” The question remains: when?

Plausible Futures, described by arguments and hypotheses, are those that logically make sense. They describe logical, coherent, and understandable realities that could happen. Plausible Futures are part of the Possible Futures, but not every Possible state is Plausible. This future type searches for logical, coherent patterns in the space of possibility, with the key being to ratify the arguments and hypotheses over time.

Probable Futures are those that are highly likely to happen, connecting with the Plausible and Preferable. Rather than being a “future space” like the others, they describe a journey of reaching the future (aligned with purpose). We create higher levels of probability through constant validation, adding new variables, updating the speed of change, viral factors, and the maturity of the shifts.